Safety Starts with Anticipation
by Scott Kirshner, M.Ed., COSCI, INCI
Anticipation is the prediction of an upcoming stimulus in order to decide on a response in advance; anticipation of a foreseeable stimulus can dramatically reduce response time in that it eliminates decision making during the reaction.
Fairbrother, J. T. (2010). Fundamentals of motor behavior. Human Kinetics.
This is an excellent definition of anticipation that covers many vital aspects which can increase one’s safety. Prediction of an upcoming stimulus helps create ‘file folders’ of possible situations that code officials may encounter in the performance of their job duties. Anticipation can help you develop skills to reach a faster decision which leads to a faster response. Considering many violent encounters occur in a time compressed environment, reducing response time is critical. I often stress that life or death can be determined in the time sensitive space between stimulus and response.
Reaction time is defined as the amount of time to begin a response to an unexpected or unanticipated signal or stimulus. Anticipation is a skill that allows you to understand what situations you are likely to encounter, perceive information from the environment, interpret observed information to understand how it impacts safety, and decide on a course of action. This process can aid in the implementation of a faster response when milliseconds can determine an outcome.
The statement in the definition of anticipation “eliminates decision making” can be misconstrued that you do not have to make a decision. Let me be exceedingly clear that you are accountable for your actions legally, morally, ethically, and through department policy and procedures. Your response must be justifiable. Response time can be reduced through high-quality training that results in automaticity. It is not that you “eliminate decision making” it is that you arrive at the decision faster based on extensive high-quality training. You execute what you were trained to do which demands less cognitive effort.
The need to anticipate is of significant importance due to the time, spatial, and environmental constraints that exist in violent encounters. This necessitates that information be processed in a short period of time to enable code officials to plan and execute a timely response to a threat’s actions. Effective anticipation requires the ability to successfully predict a stimulus and develop an appropriate response. Code officials must understand environmental cues, proxemics, body language, pre-incident indicators, pattern recognition, and other cues. After identifying an appropriate response – under stress, in a time compressed, dynamic, and ambiguous environment – you need the ability and skills to effectively execute the response. Using anticipation to select an appropriate response is based on your training and accumulated depth of knowledge regarding a specific scenario. Experience in your job provides you a greater understanding of situations you may encounter.
Anticipation is the starting point that allows you to mentally prepare for potential encounters and develop response options thereby decreasing reaction time.
When practicing anticipation, it is important to focus on incidents that are more likely to occur rather than spending a lot of time on possible but highly improbable incidents. For example,
§ At a residential inspection you are more likely to encounter an aggravated homeowner but not very likely to experience a neighborhood riot.
§ Conducting an inspection at an elementary school you are more likely to encounter an angry parent yelling at a teacher than experiencing a horrific terrorist siege of the school like the one that occurred on September 1, 2004, in Beslan, North Ossetia, Russia which lasted three days and resulted in the deaths of 334 people of which 186 were children.
Important components of Anticipation:
- Awareness of the Environment – You must be consciously aware of the environment and what is occurring.
- Attention – You must pay attention to what is occurring. Remember that looking is not the same as seeing. Additionally, just because you are looking directly at something does not mean that you are paying attention to whatever it is you are looking at. Attention requires cognition.
- Central (Foveal) Vision – Is characterized by high motion sensitivity and high spatial acuity within a very small area of approximately 2-3o of visual angle.
- Peripheral (Ambient) Vision – encompasses visual information from almost 180o on the horizontal dimension. And is characterized by high motion sensitivity and low spatial acuity. For example, something may catch your attention out of the corner of your eye, but you will probably not be able to identify what it is until you turn to look at it and use your central vision.
- Pre-incident Cue Recognition – the ability to see and understand cues that may indicate a future action. Pertaining to violence this can include a target glance, making a fist, clenching jaw, pointing aggressively, blading the body, weight shifting for a more stable or dynamic stance, moving the shoulder prior to throwing a punch, feeling the waistline for a concealed weapon, removing glasses or items of clothing, etc. Pre-incident cues can occur in clusters as a series of preparatory moves prior to an imminent attack.
- Pattern Recognition - your ability to recognize patterns or groups of behaviors that indicate an escalation to violence. Experienced code professionals must possess an understanding of what ‘normal’ looks like for the job which is often referred to as the ‘baseline.’ Some individuals you contact may be frustrated at the thought of expensive repairs or fines, but most people do not pose a threat. Now if you have a contact where the person breaks the pattern – deviates from the baseline – that will set off warning bells and is an indication you need to implement safety measures. Remember, violence can happen extremely fast so you may not have a lot of time to be proactive with your safety. For example, during a residential inspection you notice the property has a no trespassing sign, beware of dog sign, security bars on windows, and security cameras. When you introduce yourself to the contact, the person’s body language becomes aggressive. As the contact continues you see the person’s face getting red, clenching of the jaw, the person makes a fist with their right hand, takes a slight step back with their right foot and blades the body. This pattern is indicative of an imminent right punch. Your ability to recognize patterns and deviations from the baseline are important components of your safety provided you take immediate and decisive action to avoid or mitigate an impending attack or respond when necessary.
In the following series of photos, the delivery person on the motorcycle identifies two approaching individuals and anticipates a problem. This causes the delivery drive to immediately be proactive with his safety which probably saved his life.
Anticipation
It is clear the delivery person was being targeted and used the components of Anticipation as he:
§ maintains awareness of the environment
§ maintains attention throughout the entire incident
§ alternates between central vision and peripheral vision to observe both threats
§ recognizes pre-incident cues by identifying both individuals down the street, how they headed toward his direction, and how they split up
§ used pattern recognition to identify their actions as an imminent robbery
Why was the delivery person effective in thwarting this attack?
- Possible prior relationship with the attackers
- Knowledge of the neighborhood
- Understands the ‘baseline’ of the neighborhood
- Previously targeted or victim of a violent attack
Anticipation is the first step…
Safety starts with anticipation. Failure to anticipate potential problems can have a cascading effect that results in slower perception, analysis, decision, and response to an attack. A slow or delayed response in a time-sensitive encounter can result in lethal outcomes. If you currently practice “what if…” scenarios or mental imagery, then you are already practicing anticipation. While you may not understand all the granular details that go into anticipation you are still benefitting and increasing your safety. Anticipation is a critical skill to develop and is the first step to being safer. There is more to learn…
Advanced Operational Awareness
This article focusing on ‘anticipation’ is a very brief introduction to one aspect of a new training curriculum that I am developing which will be available through the Code Enforcement Officer Safety Foundation. The full course title is Advanced Operational Awareness to Avoid, De-escalate, or Defend Against Violent Encounters. The working title of the course will be Advanced Operational Awareness. This is an advanced course designed to build upon the foundation set in the Code Official Safety Specialist (COSS) training. Therefore, the COSS training is a prerequisite to register for the Advanced Operational Awareness course.
What is Advanced Operational Awareness and Why is it Necessary?
At its core Advanced Operational Awareness is an advanced and in-depth course on situational awareness but it is vastly so much more. Situational Awareness is often viewed through the lens of avoidance. Yet we definitively know that not all violent encounters can be avoided. Too often people believe that situational awareness is the one skill to solve all violence. This is a faulty assumption that can have significant consequences, and it is simply wrong.
Advanced Operational Awareness incorporates the concepts and principles of Situational Awareness and OPERATIONALIZES the tenets into a contextualized system that encompasses the range of possibilities relating to violent encounters with the primary goal that you make proactive decisions to improve your safety.
Situational awareness is often taught with the implication that all violence can be avoided if you are just “situationally aware” of your surroundings. And should the situation escalate to violence the implication then becomes it was your fault because you didn’t have situational awareness, or you didn’t apply the concepts correctly. I view this as akin to victim blaming. Let’s never forget that the threat has a say in all encounters. As I always reiterate, having situational awareness does NOT guarantee you will identify all threats in your environment. This is a critically important concept to understand and is why, in part, this course is titled Advanced Operational Awareness and not situational awareness. Advanced Operational Awareness is the aggregation, application, and integration of numerous concepts and skills from a variety of topics all of which are goal-oriented to help you avoid, de-escalate, or when necessary, defend yourself in a violent encounter in a manner that is legal, moral, and ethical.
In the Advanced Operational Awareness course, I introduce you to my APADR Model of Awareness. APADR is an acronym that stands for Anticipate, Perceive, Analyze, Decide, and Respond. Understanding the concepts and principles of APADR can significantly increase your ability to see and understand what is occurring and how your safety is impacted so you make accurate decisions sooner with the goal of increasing your safety. These concepts will be integrated within the foundational principles of time, distance, and environment. Videos of real-world encounters will be incorporated throughout the training to demonstrate how such topics apply during a real encounter.
In Advanced Operational Awareness, you will:
¬ learn new concepts and principles not covered in the COSS training
¬ receive updated information based on research for certain COSS topics
¬ examine certain COSS topics at a much deeper level
Currently, the Advanced Operational Awareness course is broken into three parts as follow:
PART 1: BASICS OF SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
‒ Introduction
‒ Module 1: The Basics of Situational Awareness
‒ Module 2: Losing Situational Awareness
‒ Module 3: The Relationship of Color Codes and the OODA Loop
‒ Module 4: The Speed of Violence
PART 2: APADR MODEL OF AWARENESS
‒ Module 5: Introduction to the APADR Model of
Operational Awareness
‒ Module 6: Anticipate
‒ Module 7: Perceive
‒ Module 8: Analyze
‒ Module 9: Decide
‒ Module 10: Respond
PART 3: TIME-DISTANCE-ENVIRONMENT
‒ Module 11: Time - Distance - Environment
‒ Module 12: Closing the Gap Between Stimulus & Response
‒ Conclusion
Also included is a PDF participant workbook that is approximately 250 pages covering course content and contains approximately 21 activities to reinforce learning objectives. As the course is being finalized some of the previous information is subject to change. If you have not completed the Code Official Safety Specialist (COSS) training, I highly recommend registering so you will be prepared for this course. If you have completed the COSS training, consider reviewing the content and activities.
Advanced Operational Awareness is the next evolution of your training journey that provides you timely, relevant, practical, and necessary information to level up your skills. As always, avoidance is emphasized but we understand that the threat has a say. Remember, officer safety training and customer service are not mutually exclusive. You have the right to perform your job duties safely while providing exceptional customer service that is professional, polite, and respectful.
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About the Author
Scott Kirshner, M.Ed., COSCI, INCI has been a Parole Administrator, Supervisory Probation Officer, and a Corrections Officer. He has extensive experience as an officer survival trainer, lead defensive tactics instructor, firearms instructor, and use of force instructor. He is the author of Officer Survival for Code Enforcement Officers. Mr. Kirshner is the owner and Lead Instructor of Dedicated Threat Solutions, LLC.
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